Over the last year I became the proud owner of The Furry Lisa, among several other one-of-a-kind digital creations often referred to as “crypto art” or “NFTs” (non-fungible tokens — a special type of…
To have good instincts about what makes a product beloved, you generally have...
- Curiosity about how people think and behave
- Understanding of why various products are popular/unpopular
- A habit of analyzing new products
- An eye for seeing good/bad user experiences
Over the past few months, I’ve become quite interested in learning about solopreneurship.
In this video, Alan Kay talks about his vision of object oriented programming and how to design scalable systems.
I’ll summarize everything up front. Might as well get on with it. Let’s do the numbers. THE NUMBERS PREDICTIONS Prediction last week: 14.3% positive rate on 9.7 million tests, and an average of 2,500 deaths, again with wide error bars. Results: 16.4% positive rate on 9.3 million tests, and an average of 2,657 deaths. The phase shift on 12/30, in the wake of Christmas, seems to have been real, giving us the clear holiday bump we did not see from previous holidays. That was both the very bad outcome for infections I was worried about, and also not high on my list of things to be concerned or furious about this week. For deaths, my estimate was lower than it should have been and I should have assumed a full reversion, so on reflection it’s my mistake rather than especially bad news. The new strain is not yet prevalent enough to be noticeably impacting the numbers. Prediction: 17.0% positive rate on 9.5 million tests, and an average of 2,800 deaths. The holidays are over, there will be some fallout, with things getting slightly worse, but with the main boost in deaths from Christmas mostly coming later. DEATHS DateWESTMIDWESTSOUTHNORTHEASTOct 29-Nov 495619772309613Nov 5-Nov 11108927122535 870Nov 12-Nov 181255293428181127Nov 19-Nov 251761416933961714Nov 26-Dec 21628 381427421939Dec 3-Dec 92437550842862744Dec 10-Dec 163278532443763541Dec 17-Dec 233826515851313772Dec 24-Dec 303363366841713640Dec 31-Jan 65320503660724986This is the one place it’s not as bad as it looks. The data source for these numbers is Wikipedia, which shows a relatively large amount of shifting of deaths from last week into this week. If we assume that a lot of this week’s deaths were actually last week, that explains much of the increase. It’s not good news or anything, it’s definitely bad news, but it is not full on terrifying like it would be if we didn’t know about Christmas. We still should expect further increases in the next few weeks before the tide likely temporarily turns. POSIT
The family structure we’ve held up as the cultural ideal for the past half century has been a catastrophe for many. It’s time to figure out better ways to live together.
Hunting, organic scams and buying a business for $0
An inspiring overview of what's to come in the next decade. Some highlights.
- Paraphrased: The Great Stagnation is over. The roaring twenties are just beginning.
- "Batteries will never match fossil fuels’ energy density" - "Commercial aviation can’t electrify"
- Nuclear fusion possible but still a decade out.
- Geothermal seems most interesting.
- Urban air mobility - likely non-viable if pilot is required so automation (and regulation) will be key.
- Nationwide Hyperloop probably a decade out.
- "Trade (on Earth) is roughly inverse-linear in transport costs."
- SpaceX is incredibly impressive
- Starlink - won't serve cities - will serve 3% of market that's not currently served - still $72b market.
- Thesis - SpaceX uses Starlink revenue to accelerate Mars projects
- "The 2020s will be the decade that makes or breaks cryptocurrency"
- By the middle of the decade, augmented reality will be widely deployed, in the same way that smart watches are today.
- Glasses will be computing devices. Every big tech company has a glasses project at a relatively mature stage in the lab today.
How to create a winning strategy on Pinterest
The Grand Unification of Web Technologies Bence Meszaros, MSc.(firstname.lastname@example.org) November 24, 2020 Abstract After 30 years, developers are still struggling to build websites efficiently. Our hypothesis is that this is due to severe and acute design flaws...
I've analyzed all 490 Indie Hackers interviews and identified 34 acquisition channels that work consistently for founders (see Zero to Users for more de...
Many of the companies we meet are founded by technologists — either young, dynamic founders with a computer science background or seasoned product managers or executives that see a better, different…
The Six Questions to Ask Yourself
Guest host Naomi Klein is joined by Movement Generation’s Gopal Dayaneni and Rutgers University professor Neil Maher.
Loved this - and believe it strongly too. Arrogance is overconfidence that negatively affects others, but it's possible (and should be encouraged) to be overconfident and self aware enough to not be a dick - people dismiss the latter because the two often go hand in hand.
On being dismissed by others
On dismissing your own ideas
Growth Ranker lists startups based on their revenue and traffic growth. Discover high growth startups before they become name brands.
A growing database of creators, makers, and indie hackers building in public.
There are currently 483 founder interviews on Indie Hackers. I've read and analyzed all of them and identified the top 30 acquisition channels mentioned...
My competitors are using this, I'll use it too.
Demoing products is Rob Falcone's bread and butter. Now he wants to pass the wisdom of his experience along so others can demo better.
Let's explore the history and role of each of the components that make up the URL!
Power classes are a useful typology for players in an empire, because each group is subject to consistent incentives. As a result, there are consistent patterns of interaction between these groups…
I don’t claim originality for any content here; people who’ve been influential on this include Nick Beckstead, Phil Trammell, Toby Ord, Aron Vallinder, Allan Dafoe, Matt Wage, and, especially, Holden Karnofsky and Carl Shulman. Everything tentative; errors all my own. INTRODUCTION Here are two distinct views: Strong Longtermism := The primary determinant of the value of our actions is the effects of those actions on the very long-run future.The Hinge of History Hypothesis (HoH) := We are living at the most influential time ever.It seems that, in the effective altruism community as it currently stands, those who believe longtermism generally also assign significant credence to HoH; I’ll precisify ‘significant’ as >10% when ‘time’ is used to refer to a period of a century, but my impression is that many longtermists I know would assign >30% credence to this view. It’s a pretty striking fact that these two views are so often held together — they are very different claims, and it’s not obvious why they should so often be jointly endorsed. This post is about separating out these two views and introducing a view I call outside-view longtermism, which endorses longtermism but finds HoH very unlikely. I won’t define outside-view longtermism here, but the spirit is that — as our best guess — we should expect the future to continue the trends of the past, and we should be sceptical of the idea that now is a particularly unusual time. I think that outside-view longtermism is currently a neglected position within EA and deserves some defense and exploration. Before we begin, I’ll note I’m not making any immediate claim about the actions that follow from outside-view longtermism. It’s plausible to me that whether we have 30% or just 0.1% credence in HoH, we should still be investing significant resources into the activities that would be best were HoH true. The most obvious implication, however, is regarding what proportion of resources longtermist EAs should be spending on
Didn't get proper notes because I was on the move. Interview was constructed as a series of elaborations on articles Flo has written. Made me want to read his blog.
Some random quotes I remember:
- "I’m bullish on the White collar gig economy"
- “Radical egalitarianism is eating the world?”
- "Peter Zeihan - no matter what American does in the next 20 to 30 years, they’re fine. We’re subsidising the global order."
- Thinking in public - People massively overestimate the downside and underestimate the upside.
Salary negotiation advice, mostly for engineers. Running total of raises negotiated due to this essay: $9M+.
Stripe Atlas’ guide to understanding low-touch and high-touch SaaS businesses
Stripe Atlas’ guide to pricing and packaging for low-touch SaaS businesses
Before I proceed with a brief discussion of postmodernism and its contribution to the 20th century thought, a clarification: contrary to the common view, the “modernism” part of the word “postmodernism” does not denote “modernity.” Such an interpretation is wrong (and also raises the question of why postmodernism had not happened 200 years earlier). The “modernism” part of the word refers to the dominant literary and artistic movement of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In other words, postmodernism is not what came after the Renaissance, the industrial revolution, Voltaire and Descartes—it is what came after the cubists, the existentialists, Kafka and Joyce. This correction is important for reasons of formal accuracy—but it is also a reminder that postmodernism was neither the first, nor the most important movement to attack the values of Western civilisation. Mannerism did it in the 1520s, followed by baroque, then the gothics and romantics, and, finally, at the turn of the 20th century, the modernists. The latter rebelled on a truly grand scale, negating and annihilating everything that had …
An Evolving Exploration into the Head, Heart and Hands of Energy Descent
Content overload, "FOMO", in order to manage the plethora of data flowing across the web and not miss any of it, curation has emerged as a miracle solution. But are we actually good curators? Have we created the right tools, the right processes? And above all, what are we doing to make our curation actionable?
Stripe is probably worth more than Goldman and it’s just getting started
This was so good! The whole thing is worth reading.
I've spent the last 15 years building web sites and web software of
Understanding possible directions and choosing one.
GHP = Great Horizontal Product I just returned from a trip to America where a last minute cancellation led to a flying visit to SF. I ended up having several discussions to harden the idea I've been incubating for the past while, and I found myself making the same points and
Github recently launched their new Github codespaces service - an online, in-browser Integrated Development Environment powered by Visual Studio Code. This environment allows someone to quickly load a virtual machine and a complete code editing interface, that is all accessible within the browser without having to install anything on the users machine. If you are familiar with products like Amazon Web Services’s Cloud 9 IDE or its predecessor C9.io this will probably feel very familiar.
01:47:42 - My guest today is Balaji Srinivasan, an angel investor and entrepreneur. When it comes to the future, he's the single most creative person I know be…
Startup founders: Here's why you should improve writing skills and practical advice for how to become a better writer.
The “divine discontent” critique
Part two in our series on B2B growth strategy
I was bewildered when I encountered a new social class at Yale four years ago: the luxury belief class. My confusion wasn’t surprising given my unusual background. When I was two years old, my mother was addicted to drugs and my father abandoned us. I grew up in multiple foster homes, was then adopted into a series of broken homes, and then experienced a series of family tragedies. Later, after a few years in the military, I went to Yale on the GI Bill. On campus, I realized that luxury beliefs have become fashionable status symbols. Luxury beliefs are ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class. In the past, people displayed their membership of the upper class with their material accoutrements. But today, luxury goods are more affordable than before. And people are less likely to receive validation for the material items they display. This is a problem for the affluent, who still want to broadcast their high social position. But …
Strategy’s most famous theory could be wrong
A new tool that blends your everyday work apps into one. It's the all-in-one workspace for you and your team
Paid groups, bespoke social networks, and the meaning of community for internet-native businesses.
DEAR READERS — We’ve moved this blog to Substack! Find the complete set of posts at supernuclear.substack.com.* This is part of an ongoing series of deep dives on coliving spaces. To see others…
Left arm is over-developed, right arm is underdeveloped.
The 19ᵗʰ and 20ᵗʰ Centuries saw the rise of Science. But these developments ignored a kind of knowledge that’s more important to human beings: knowledge of how to live well.
"There is technical knowledge, which is knowledge about achievement-problems. And there is wisdom, which is knowledge about practice-problems."
A simple tip to communicate clearer and faster with clients, teams and lovers. Use in emails, project management, phone calls and more.
The title of this essay should disturb you. We have been brought up to believe that tolerating other people is one of the things you do if you’re a nice person — whether we learned this in…
Everything you ever wanted to know about how Tiny, a holding company for internet businesses, operates.
In a small trial, drugs seemed to rejuvenate the body’s ‘epigenetic clock’, which tracks a person’s biological age. In a small trial, a cocktail of drugs seemed to rejuvenate the body’s ‘epigenetic clock’.
COVID19 has driven universities online but they can't compete with modern influencer-lead alternatives
Trust is choosing to make something important to you vulnerable to the actions of someone else
Meet Natively Integrated Companies What’s old is new again. Companies being built today are able to apply lessons learned from Linear Businesses and Aggregators to create a hybrid of the two. They have control over the products they create and direct, two-way relationships with customers, enabling
The old approach startups took was to sell or license their new technology to incumbents. The new, “full stack” approach is to build a complete, end-to-end product or service that bypasses incumbents and other competitors. The good news is if these startups pull it off, it will be extremely hard for competitors to replicate all those interlocking pieces. MORE
A Not Boring Investment Memo
Lessons from Figma, Stripe, Airtable, Shopify, Plaid, and many more
Using a Zettelkasten helps you make connections between notes, improving learning and memory.
I’m a huge fan of databases, so much so that I’ve
written a book on so-called “NoSQL” databases, I spent some of my most fruitful years in tech working on the highly influential distributed database
Riak, and I even built a database called
Purple last year just for fun.
Over the past two decades, two separate trillion-dollar enterprise software sectors have been created: SaaS software and public cloud. Now is time for a third.
Psychiatry is under attack for not being scientific enough, but the real problem is its blindness to culture. When it comes to mental illness, we wear the disorders that come off the rack.
'If you look at what people actually do to be happier, it seems nearly everyone tries to change the external facts: we try to become richer, thinner, more successful, to find a better house in a nicer area, and so on. A few of us think about trying to spend less time working, and more time on hobbies or with friends and family. Almost no one thinks about actively retraining the way they think. In fact, I don’t think this last idea even crosses most of our minds.'
5 +- 2
For many it is a cherished dream to win a Nobel Prize, or an Oscar, or a knighthood, or whatever honor is most respected in the field they dedicate themselves to. These ritualized honors are very important to us, but do we fully understand them?
Ludwig Wittgenstein on language How can we tell what is real and what isn’t? Ludwig Wittgenstein said that it was all about language. If we want to understand what we can know, then we must look at…
Let’s not sugarcoat this: diseases, hunger, and our inevitable death have been a strain on our relationship with nature. We needed some distance.
Really insightful tweet about x
Super insightful post. Loved the bit about ...
TLDR; Internet Explorer innovated a lot of browser improvements and used to have a lot of great features - two way bindings, data grids,
"Back in the days, Microsoft was single-handedly pushing the web forward, with around 1.000(!) people working on Internet Explorer and with a 100 million dollar budget to burn per year, with almost no-one left to compete"
"But to be able to model the Windows UI with web technologies, Microsoft had to add plenty of new capabilities to IE: CSS Grid, CSS Flexbox, CSS Scroll Snap Points"
"t feels like Internet Explorer already had many of the things that we came to reinvent later and that we now celebrate as innovations"
"Back since Internet Explorer 4.0 in 1997 you could embed data sources into your document. This could be done by referencing an external CSV file via <object> element:"
"Internet Explorer also shipped with a native data grid implementation that you hooked up to the above data sources and which is built on top of the <table> element"
" would say that Microsoft was lightyears ahead of everyone else in regards to providing tools and solutions for architecting complex and delightful websites"
"One part of why Microsoft's ideas didn't really catched on was that we developers just didn't get it. Most of us were amateurs and had no computer degree."
"The other reason could have been a lack of platforms to spread knowledge to the masses. The internet was still in its infancy, so there was no MDN, no Smashing Magazine, no Codepen, no Hackernoon, no Dev.to "
- From an ADHD perspective, procrastination is only one part of the problem - you're normally aware when you're procrastinating. Another problem is maintaining focus even once you've started something, and the effort it takes to block out both internal and environmental distractions to complete it.
- Also "Psychological Inflexibility" seems fascinating and is another rabbit hole I will now go down.
but the main argument is that productivity and collaboration have always been handled as two separate workflows:
We started with individual files that we sent back and forth via email
Then Dropbox came along and enabled collaboration within documents, but communication about these docs remained a separate channel
Slack wants to become the central communication channel for all productivity apps
The signatures of the best companies I’ve invested in are remarkably similar:
- Compelling founders
- A mission that attracts talented people into the startup’s orbit
- A product so good that people spontaneously tell their friends about it
- A rapidly growing market,
- A network effect
- Llow marginal costs
- The ability to grow fast
- A product that is either fundamentally new or 10x better than existing options.
Smart demo video for Ultorg - lots of clever interface concepts (move to root)
What is Music?
Part 1: Constrain the marketplace 🔬 (this post)
Part 2: Decide which side of the marketplace to concentrate on 🧐
Part 3: Drive initial supply 🐥
Part 4: Drive initial demand 👋
Aligning "Who you are", "What you believe", and "What you do" creates meaning
Super interesting article
"Blame is described in the research as: A way to discharge pain and discomfort"
First time I've come across the "Game B" term. Good synopsis. Scale by Geoffrey West also touches on the possibility that the current system collapses under its own weight.
"When I joined Stripe, one of my stated goals was to approach my work in a way where I was doing my best work three, five, ten years rather than peaking early. To work at a pace I could sustain, instead of a blitz followed by a slow fizzling out."
"your current coworkers also have an outsized influence on your career long after you’ve stopped working together."
"If you’re a company leader, you have effectiveness and moral obligations to reduce the role of prestige in your systems, and we do that by developing good process. However, many desirable things that you want over the course of your career will be gated by mechanisms that favor folks with prestige. You can be justly upset by that fact, but upset is an insufficient catalyst for change, and ultimately you’ll have to develop your own prestige to gain access to those scarce opportunities and resources.
The good news, though, is that prestige is imminently manufacturable!"
"The key here isn’t “getting rich”, but creating the flexibility for yourself and the folks who depend on you, because that flexibility allows you to be deliberate about creating opportunities to invest into yourself and your career.
Financial security is a prerequisite to own your pace and learning."
Shared by Rainn Wilson on twitter
Some great examples of how fire fighting in startups tends to work. Regularly find myself referencing this.
Great summary of
- Difference between top down & bottom up design
- The enormous downside of optimizing for a linear metric at the expense of the many emergent phenomena which are important to humans but nigh on impossible to quantify.
One of my favourite podcast episodes. A lot of gems about communication within teams, many of which are as applicable to interpersonal relationships outside the workplace.
Really interesting findings
"We need to find some way to look up and not around"
"My job charging me with lots of event planning and orchestration of details — I started feeling like I had half a brain. It was taking me way longer to do stuff than it seemed my co-workers would take to do the same stuff. I took a lot home. I worked more hours. I couldn’t help but feel wildly inefficient, even though I was paddling underwater twice as fast."
"First 75% of my life: SWELL. Next 8%: WENT TO CRAP. Most recent 17%: HARNESSING THAT SHIT."